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The gambler's fallacy

The wheel has no memory.

Red has come up eight times — surely black is due? It is not. This tool shows the two probabilities side by side and settles the most expensive instinct in gambling.

The idea

Each spin starts from zero.

A long streak was unlikely to predict in advance. But once it has happened, the next spin does not know about it — a coin does not remember its tosses. Betting that a streak 'has to' break gives you no edge whatsoever. It just feels like it should.

The gambler's fallacy

After a streak, does anything change? Look at the two numbers.

How many times in a row the same result has come up.

Probability of the whole streak

0.314%

Calculated before it started

Probability of the next one

48.65%

After the streak

The wheel has no memory

That 8 identical results came up in a row changes nothing: the next one still has a 48.65% chance, exactly like the first. The opposite is not 'due'. Every spin is independent.

The gambler's fallacy is believing a streak 'has to' break. It does not. A coin does not remember its tosses. The streak was unlikely to predict beforehand — but once it has happened, the next event starts from zero. Betting 'on it changing' carries no edge at all.