El Farol.bet
Poker · Equity

Being ahead is not winning.

Pick two hands and we simulate 25,000 board run-outs to give you the real equity of each. You will see that "the best hand" is almost never as big a favorite as it looks.

The idea

The favorite loses too, and often.

A pair against two overcards is a classic coin flip: 55-45. Ace-King against a lower pair loses almost half the time. Understanding real equity cures the most common frustration in poker — losing while "ahead" is not bad luck, it is the norm.

Hand versus hand

Pick the four cards and we simulate 25,000 boards.

Hand 1

Hand 2

Preflop equity is only the starting point: today's favourite may be 55%-45%, not 90%. In poker, being 'ahead' rarely means being far ahead — which is why one hand says nothing and a thousand say everything.