A bluff that does the math.
A bet wins two ways: the opponent folds, or they call and you hit. Add both and you get the expected value — the line between a thought-out bluff and throwing chips blind.
The idea
It does not need to always work.
A bluff does not need the opponent to fold every time — it needs them to fold enough. And even when called, your hand may still improve. The break-even fold percentage tells you exactly where betting starts to beat checking.
Is the bluff worth it?
Your bet wins two ways: they fold, or you hit.
The size of your bluff or raise.
Your fold equity: how often you think it happens.
Chance of winning the pot when you get called.
Expected value of the play
15.25 €
Average gain from betting
Fold equity you need
11%
For it to be profitable
+15.25 €
The play wins +15.25 € on average. You only need them to fold 11% of the time: above that, betting beats checking — adding the times they fold and the times you hit.